Using 311 data to develop an algorithm to identify urban blight for public health improvement.

The growth of administrative data made available publicly, often in near-real time, offers new opportunities for monitoring conditions that impact community health. Urban blight-manifestations of adverse social processes in the urban environment, including physical disorder, decay, and loss of anchor institutions-comprises many conditions considered to negatively affect the health of communities. However, measurement strategies for urban blight have been complicated by lack of uniform data, often requiring expensive street audits or the use of proxy measures that cannot represent the multifaceted nature of blight. This paper evaluates how publicly available data from New York City's 311-call system can be used in a natural language processing approach to represent urban blight across the city with greater geographic and temporal precision. We found that our urban blight algorithm, which includes counts of keywords ('tokens'), resulted in sensitivity ~90% and specificity between 55% and 76%, depending on other covariates in the model. The percent of 311 calls that were 'blight related' at the census tract level were correlated with the most common proxy measure for blight: short, medium, and long-term vacancy rates for commercial and residential buildings. We found the strongest association with long-term (>1 year) commercial vacancies (Pearson's correlation coefficient = 0.16, p < 0.001). Our findings indicate the need of further validation, as well as testing algorithms that disambiguate the different facets of urban blight. These facets include physical disorder (e.g., litter, overgrown lawns, or graffiti) and decay (e.g., vacant or abandoned lots or sidewalks in disrepair) that are manifestations of social processes such as (loss of) neighborhood cohesion, social control, collective efficacy, and anchor institutions. More refined measures of urban blight would allow for better targeted remediation efforts and improved community health.

Convergence in health care spending across counties in New York from 2007 through 2016.

BACKGROUND: One approach considered for reducing health care spending is to narrow the gap in spending between high- and low-spending areas. The goal would be to reduce spending in the high areas to similar levels achieved in areas that use health care more efficiently. This paper examined the degree to which high-spending areas remain high-spending and which types of service lead to convergence or divergence in spending in New York State. METHODS: This analysis utilized publicly available data on county-level spending trends for the Medicare fee-for-service population from 2007 to 2016. The study applied methods previously used to evaluate changes in the regional variation of health care spending nationally to county-level data within New York. RESULTS: The spread of health care spending converged slightly over the ten-year period analyzed. There was also evidence for regression to the mean-effects and changes in the relative rankings of spending across counties during this time. While there was strong evidence for convergence, many high-spending counties in 2007 remained high-spending in 2016. There were also differences in which services drove spending variation at the national level compared to within New York. CONCLUSIONS: These findings point to counties with consistently high spending as a potential focus for health care cost-control efforts. Moreover, efforts to reduce unwarranted variation in spending may need to be tailored to the circumstances of particular regions as there are geographic differences in which services drive spending variation. Regression to the mean effects also have important implications for the specifications of alternative provider payment models, such as accountable care organizations, which promote convergence in spending by utilizing spending targets.

Payments from drug companies to physicians are associated with higher volume and more expensive opioid analgesic prescribing.

BACKGROUND: While the rise in opioid analgesic prescribing and overdose deaths was multifactorial, financial relationships between opioid drug manufacturers and physicians may be one important factor. METHODS: Using national data from 2013 to 2015, we conducted a retrospective cohort study linking the Open Payments database and Medicare Part D drug utilization data. We created two cohorts of physicians, those receiving opioid-related payments in 2014 and 2015, but not in 2013, and those receiving opioid-related payments in 2015 but not in 2013 and 2014. Our main outcome measures were expenditures on filled prescriptions, daily doses filled, and expenditures per daily dose. For each cohort, we created a comparison group that did not receive an opioid-related payment in any year and was matched on state, specialty, and baseline opioid expenditures. We used a difference-in-differences analysis with linear generalized estimating equations regression models. RESULTS: We identified 6,322 physicians who received opioid-related payments in 2014 and 2015, but not in 2013; they received a mean total of $251. Relative to comparison group physicians, they had a significantly larger increase in mean opioid expenditures ($6,171; 95% CI: 4,997 to 7,346), daily doses dispensed (1,574; 95%CI: 1,330 to 1,818) and mean expenditures per daily dose ($0.38; 95% CI: 0.29 to 0.47). We identified 8,669 physicians who received opioid-related payments in 2015, but not in 2013 or 2014; they received a mean total of $40. Relative to comparison physicians, they also had a larger increase in mean opioid expenditures ($1,031; 95% CI: 603 to 1,460), daily doses dispensed (557; 95% CI: 417 to 697), and expenditures per daily dose ($0.06; 95% CI: 0.002 to 0.13). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings add to the growing public policy concern that payments from opioid drug manufacturers can influence physician prescribing. Interventions are needed to reduce such promotional activities or to mitigate their influence.

Medicare underpayment for Diabetes Prevention Program: implications for DPP suppliers.

OBJECTIVES: To examine if Medicare reimbursements for the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) cover program costs. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective modeling study. METHODS: A microcosting approach was used to calculate the costs of delivering DPP in 2016 to more than 300 patients from Montefiore Health System (MHS), a large healthcare system headquartered in Bronx, New York. Attendance and weight loss outcomes were used to estimate Medicare reimbursement. We also modeled revenue assuming that our program outcomes had been similar to those observed in national data. RESULTS: The 1-year cost of delivering DPP to 322 participants in 2016 was $177,976, or $553 per participant. The costliest components of delivery were direct instruction (28% of total cost) and patient outreach, enrollment, and eligibility confirmation (24%). Based on our program outcomes (14.3% lost ≥5% of their initial weight and 50% attended ≥4 sessions), MHS would be reimbursed $34,625 ($108/patient). If outcomes were in line with national CDC reports (eg, better attendance and weight loss outcomes), MHS would have been reimbursed $61,270 ($190/patient). CONCLUSIONS: In a large urban health system serving a diverse population, the costs of delivering DPP far outweighed Medicare reimbursement amounts. Analyzing and documenting the costs associated with delivering the evidence-based DPP may inform prospective suppliers and payers and aid in advocacy for adequate reimbursement.

The Affordable Care Act's payment and delivery system reforms: a progress report at five years.

In addition to its expansion and reform of health insurance coverage, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) contains numerous provisions intended to resolve underlying problems in how health care is delivered and paid for in the United States. These provisions focus on three broad areas: testing new delivery models and spreading successful ones, encouraging the shift toward payment based on the value of care provided, and developing resources for systemwide improvement. This brief describes these reforms and, where possible, documents their initial impact at the ACA's five-year mark. While it is still far too early to offer any kind of definitive assessment of the law's transformation-seeking reforms, it is clear that the ACA has spurred activity in both the public and private sectors, and is contributing to momentum in states and localities across the U.S. to improve the value obtained for our health care dollars.

Effect of Public Reporting on MR Imaging Use for Low Back Pain.

PURPOSE: To determine whether magnetic resonance (MR) imaging examination rates for low back pain before conservative therapy in the Medicare and privately insured populations changed after introduction of a Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services public reporting initiative. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Institutional review board approval was obtained, with waiver of informed consent. A retrospective study was performed by using fee-for-service claims data from Medicare and a commercial carrier (Blue Cross Blue Shield of Texas [BCBSTX]) for Texas enrollees. OP-8 was calculated, which is a publicly reported measure as of 2009 of the proportion of MR imaging examinations performed for low back pain without history of conservative therapy. For 330 463 MR imaging examinations, OP-8 rates, trends, and regional variation were analyzed for 2008-2011 within different outpatient settings-outpatient hospital department (OHD) and nonhospital outpatient department (NOD)-according to payer. Largest-volume hospitals were also evaluated within the Medicare population. RESULTS: No significant reduction was found in annual OP-8 values for Medicare or BCBSTX (Medicare OHD, 0.35 for 2008 vs 0.36 for 2009 [P = .01]; BCBSTX OHD, 0.42 for 2008 vs 0.44 for 2009 [P = .03]; Medicare NOD, 0.33 for 2008 vs 0.35 for 2009 [P < .0001]; and BCBSTX NOD, 0.43 for 2008 vs 0.42 for 2009[P = .23]). These changes were not sustained during subsequent years in the BCBSTX population, and there were no further changes in Medicare rates. Among hospitals with highest Medicare volumes, those with the highest OP-8 rates in 2008 were associated with the highest decrease in their measure. (The annual change rate was negative for all years, with 2008 as the reference [P < .0001 for 2009-2011].) Hospitals with the lowest OP-8 rates had increases in OP-8 rates, which persisted in following years (P = .006 for 2009, P = .037 for 2010, and P = .004 for 2011). Hospitals with baseline OP-8 rates in the 25th-75th percentile remained relatively steady over time. CONCLUSION: No evidence was found that public reporting (OP-8) reduced MR imaging rates for low back pain without conservative therapy in either Medicare or commercially insured populations in hospital or nonhospital settings.

Variation in inpatient hospital prices and outpatient service quantities drive geographic differences in private spending in Texas.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the contribution of market-level prices, utilization, and health risk to medical spending variation among the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Texas (BCBSTX) privately insured population and the Texas Medicare population. DATA SOURCES: Claims data for all BCBSTX members and publicly available CMS data for Texas in 2011. STUDY DESIGN: We used observational data and decomposed overall and service-specific spending into health status and health status adjusted utilization and input prices and input prices adjusted for the BCBSTX and Medicare populations. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Variation in overall BCBSTX spending across HRRs appeared driven by price variation, whereas utilization variation factored more prominently in Medicare. The contribution of price to spending variation differed by service category. Price drove inpatient spending variation, while utilization drove outpatient and professional spending variation in BCBSTX. The context in which negotiations occur may help explain the patterns across services. CONCLUSIONS: The conventional wisdom that Medicare does a better job of controlling prices and private plans do a better job of controlling volume is an oversimplification. BCBSTX does a good job of controlling outpatient and professional prices, but not at controlling inpatient prices. Strategies to manage the variation in spending may need to differ substantially depending on the service and payer.

Analysis of early accountable care organizations defines patient, structural, cost, and quality-of-care characteristics.

Accountable care organizations (ACOs) have attracted interest from many policy makers and clinical leaders because of their potential to improve the quality of care and reduce costs. Federal ACO programs for Medicare beneficiaries are now up and running, but little information is available about the baseline characteristics of early entrants. In this descriptive study we present data on the structural and market characteristics of these early ACOs and compare ACOs' patient populations, costs, and quality with those of their non-ACO counterparts at baseline. We found that ACO patients were more likely than non-ACO patients to be older than age eighty and had higher incomes. ACO patients were less likely than non-ACO patients to be black, covered by Medicaid, or disabled. The cost of care for ACO patients was slightly lower than that for non-ACO patients. Slightly fewer than half of the ACOs had a participating hospital. Hospitals that were in ACOs were more likely than non-ACO hospitals to be large, teaching, and not-for-profit, although there was little difference in their performance on quality metrics. Our findings can be useful in interpreting the early results from the federal ACO programs and in establishing a baseline to assess the programs' development.

Paying for value: replacing Medicare's sustainable growth rate formula with incentives to improve care.

This brief sets forth a set of policy options to improve the way health care providers are paid by Medicare. The authors suggest repealing Medicare's sustain­able growth rate (SGR) formula for physician fees and replacing it with a pay-for-value approach that would: 1) increase payments over time only for physicians and other provid­ers who participate in innovative care arrangements; 2) strengthen primary care and care teams; and 3) implement bundled payments for hospital-related care. These reforms would be adopted by Medicare, Medicaid, and private plans in the new insurance marketplaces, with the goal of accelerating innovation in care delivery throughout the health system. Together, these policies could more than offset the cost of repealing the SGR formula, saving $788 billion for the federal government over 10 years and $1.3 trillion nationwide. Savings also would accrue to state and local governments ($163 billion), private employ­ers ($91 billion), and households ($291 billion).

Medicare beneficiaries less likely to experience cost- and access-related problems than adults with private coverage.

The experiences of people covered by Medicare and those with private employer insurance can help inform policy debates over the federal budget deficit, Medicare's affordability, and the expansion of private health insurance under the Affordable Care Act. This article provides evidence that people with employer-sponsored coverage were more likely than Medicare beneficiaries to forgo needed care, experience access problems due to cost, encounter medical bill problems, and be less satisfied with their coverage. Within the subset of beneficiaries who are age sixty-five or older, those enrolled in the private Medicare Advantage program were less likely than those in traditional Medicare to have premiums and out-of-pocket costs exceed 10 percent of their income. But they were also more likely than those in traditional Medicare to rate their insurance poorly and to report cost-related access problems. These results suggest that policy options to shift Medicare beneficiaries into private insurance would need to be attentive to potentially negative insurance experiences, problems obtaining needed care, and difficulties paying medical bills.

Comparing variation in Medicare and private insurance spending in Texas.

OBJECTIVES: A great deal of research has documented the wide variation in Medicare spending across different geographic regions in the United States. However, little research has been done on spending variation in the commercial sector. The objectives of this paper are (1) to compare variations in spending and inpatient utilization in the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Texas (BCBSTX) population and the Medicare population across 32 Texas regions and (2) to investigate if the pattern of widely varying Medicare spending but similar BCBSTX spending found in a previous analysis of El Paso and Hidalgo/McAllen exists across the state. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective study using 2008 BCBSTX and Medicare data. We used total spending per member/enrollee per month and inpatient admissions per 1000 members/enrollees. METHODS: After adjusting BCBSTX and Medicare spending for price and adjusting BCBSTX spending and utilization for age and gender, we computed coefficients of variation, standard deviations from the Texas means, and kernel density estimates for standard deviations from the mean to compare variation in BCBSTX and Medicare spending and inpatient utilization. RESULTS: Results indicated that variations across Texas in total spending and inpatient utilization are similar in BCBSTX and Medicare both in level and in direction, as the correlations between Medicare and commercial spending and inpatient utilization are positive after excluding the Hidalgo/McAllen regions. CONCLUSIONS: Over the state of Texas, regions of high Medicare spending also tend to be regions of high private insurance spending. McAllen appears to be an outlier for Medicare spending, but not for BCBSTX spending.

Health spending projections through 2013.

The rate of growth in national health expenditures is projected to fall to 7.8 percent in 2003 because of slower private and public spending growth. However, during the next ten years health spending growth is expected to outpace economic growth. As a result, the health share of gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to increase from 14.9 percent in 2002 to 18.4 percent in 2013. The recently passed Medicare drug benefit legislation (not included in these projections) is not anticipated to have a large impact on overall national health spending, but it can be expected to cause sizable shifts in payment sources.

Age Estimates in the National Health Accounts.

This article presents historical trends of health spending by age. Personal health care is broken out into seven age groups for 1987, 1996, and 1999. Analysis of trends in health care spending is provided separately for children (age 0-18), working-age adults (age 19-64), and the elderly (age 65 or over). Future impacts of aging are also discussed, including using the historical estimates in a simulation to show only the effect of changing the age mix of the population over the next 50 years.

Health spending projections for 2002-2012.

We forecast a slowdown in national health spending growth in 2002 and 2003, reflecting slower projected Medicare and private personal health spending growth. These factors outweigh higher projected Medicaid spending growth, caused by weak labor markets, and an expectation of continued high private health insurance premium inflation related to the underwriting cycle. Over the entire projection period, national health spending growth is still expected to outpace economic growth. The result is that the health share of gross domestic product is projected to increase from 14.1 percent in 2001 to 17.7 percent in 2012.

Health spending projections for 2002-2012

Presents the result is that the health share of gross domestic product is projected to increase from 14.1 percent in 2001 to 17.7 percent in 2012.

Burden of health care costs: businesses, households, and governments, 1987-2000.

In this article, we estimate expenditures by businesses, households, and governments in providing financing for health care for 1987-2000 and track measures of burden that these costs impose. Although burden measures for businesses and the Federal Government have stabilized or improved since 1993, measures of burden for State and local governments are deteriorating slightly--a situation that is likely to worsen in the near future. As health care spending accelerates and an economy wide recession seems imminent, businesses, households, and governments that finance health care will face renewed health cost pressures on their revenue and income.

Health spending projections for 2001-2011: the latest outlook.

This paper describes the most recent ten-year projections of national health spending. projections, produced annually, are based on econometric and actuarial models of the health sector. Our current outlook includes a sharper near-term increase in the health sector's share of gross domestic product (GDP), which reaches 16.8 percent by 2010, compared with the 15.9 percent projected last year. This difference largely reflects legislation-driven increases in public spending growth combined with a weaker economic outlook. Recent acceleration in private-sector health spending is projected to peak in 2002.